Cyber Threat Analysis and Risk Assessment

Threat analysis and risk assessment (commonly referred to as TARA) are the key activities that should be carried out by all organisations whether they are enterprises or small scale companies. At present, there are many methodologies for how risk assessment and threat analysis can be performed.

Generally, these methodologies have been categorised into two separate classes – open source and proprietary or paid version. But regardless of the cost, they all answer the same questions:

• What needs protection?
• What are the threats and vulnerabilities?
• Who are the threat actors?
• Implications upon any damage or loss?
• Value to the organisation?
• What can you do to minimise the risk of loss or damage?

The result or goal of a threat and risk assessment is to provide recommendations that maximise confidentiality, integrity, and availability all the while providing functionality and ease of use.

This is also helpful in keeping all relevant stakeholders informed about the current security practices, identified threats, cyber incidents or intrusion incidents and any cyber risk found.

Before diving into how a cyber threat or risk analysis is conducted, let’s briefly look at what are cyber threats and cyber risks and how do they differ from each other.

What is a cyber threat?

An organisation’s threat landscape can be anything that interferes with or disrupts a valuable service or asset in an organisation’s technology ecosystem. Whether it is “human” or “non-human” security incident, cyber threat analysis requires careful examination of every potential attack vector that could lead to a conceivable security risk to a system or asset.

To help an organisations to identify trends, distinguish, remediate and get ready for likely dangers, a cyber threat examination gives an organised and repeatable mitigation technique. The results of these cycles are combined with the publicly available information such as on threat intelligence platforms and available security feeds to achieve a structured and hierarchical way of dealing with cyber threats.

What is a cyber security risk assessment?

A cyber security risk assessment or risk analysis is the distinguishing proof of dangers that could adversely affect an organisation’s capability to direct business. These evaluations assist with distinguishing innate business chances and give preventive measures, cycles and controls to lessen the effect of these threats to business related tasks.

Organisations can utilise a risk assessment framework (RAF) to focus on and share any dangers to their information technology (IT). The RAF assists an organisation by distinguishing likely threats and any business resources put in danger by these risks.

In large ventures, the risk management process is typically directed by the Chief Risk Officer (CRO) or a Chief Risk Manager who lead the relevant teams.

Threat vs risk

The contrasts between risk and threat are little, yet essential to know. Consider a threat actor as an external power or an aggressor, that may hurt your organisation. It may come as a virus, malware, or an actual hacker. Assuming something breaks into your organisation or hacks into your records, you’ve been compromised.

Risk factors appear to be basically the same as a threat, however, while a threat is simply the assailant, a risk is how much an assault (or other security incident) could incur harm. Risk is the likelihood that harm may happen because of weaknesses, either in your security framework, unexpected occasions, third party risk or in view of human error.

Fundamentally, your company is your home and your IT framework is the locks and entryways. A threat is somebody attempting to come in excluded, while your risks are leaving your entryways and windows opened.

Why are security assessments important?

Conducting an IT security assessment consistently assists companies with creating a strong security posture for guaranteeing business objectives and achievement.

Specifically, it empowers them to:

• Distinguish and remediate IT security holes.
• Prevent data breaches.
• Implement controls to remediate risk.
• Remove pointless or out of date control measures
• Assess potential security threats.
• Comply with compliance and regulatory bodies.
• Estimate future capacity and growth.

Components of risk assessment

IT risk management consists of four key parts:

1. Threat

A threat is any occasion that could hurt a company and its resources. A threat model incorporates these security events and disruptions to create a threat matrix.

2. Vulnerability

A vulnerability or weakness is any potential weak spot that could permit an attacker to cause harm. For instance, an obsolete antivirus program is a weakness that can allow a malware attack to succeed. Having a server room in the basement is a weakness that increases the odds of a storm or flood demolishing hardware and causing downtime.

There are many organisations such as The NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) Vulnerability Database keep a record of the majority of the vulnerabilities identified in all kinds of software and hardware components.

3. Impact

The impact is the complete harm the attacker would bring about assuming a weakness is taken advantage of by a threat. For instance, an effective ransomware attack could result in lost productivity and information recuperation costs, yet additionally, impacts on client/customer related information may lead to severe impacts such as lost business, and legal penalties.

4. Probability

This is the likelihood that an attack will happen. It is normally not a particular number but rather a range.

What is cyber threat analysis?

Cyber threat analysis is the process of assessing the cyber activities and capabilities of unknown entities or criminals. A cyber security threat or “cyber threat” can be defined as a malicious act that seeks to disrupt digital life.  This act could be the disruption of a communication pathway, the damage of data, or stealing data.

The fundamental target of threat analysis is to deliver discoveries using the help of prior knowledge, examinations and cyber threat intelligence. Then, at that point, based on the information gathered a move is made to completely mitigate the threat or go for some other remediation.

In the threat analysis process, the external and internal weaknesses are identified with a specific plan of action in mind, the results are then matched against the genuine real-world cyber attacks. This sort of way to deal with and counter digital attacks is a beneficial change from a responsive security state to a productive, proactive state.

The result from a threat assessment should give the prescribed procedures on the best way to use the defensive security controls to ensure complete integrity, accessibility, and privacy concerns, without affecting the usefulness and ease of use.

How is a risk assessment conducted?

How a risk assessment is carried out generally relies upon the threats model of the sort of business that organisation is in. In any case, there are five general steps that organisations can follow paying little heed to their business type or industry.

Stage 1

Identify the risks.

The initial phase in a risk assessment is to distinguish any potential risks that, if they somehow materialised, would adversely impact the organisation’s capacity to lead the business.

Stage 2

Determine what, or who could be impacted. Once the threats are distinguished, the subsequent stage is to figure out which business resources would be adversely affected assuming the risk worked out as expected.

Business resources considered in danger of these risks can include basic framework, business activities, systems, infrastructure, organisation notoriety and even worker wellbeing.

Stage 3

Evaluate the dangers and foster control measures.

A security team composed of top notch security professionals can assist with distinguishing what the identified threats will mean for business resources and the actions that can be taken to limit or wipe out the impact of these risks on business resources.

Potential threats can result in property harm, business interference, monetary misfortune and legitimate punishments.

Stage 4

Record the discoveries.

The risk assessment discoveries should be recorded by the organisation and recorded as effectively available in official archives. The records should remember subtleties for expected dangers, their related dangers and plans to mitigate the risks.

Stage 5

Review and update the risk assessment routinely.

Likely threats, hazards and their subsequent controls can change quickly in a cutting edge business climate. Companies should revise their risk assessment procedures consistently to adjust to these changes.

Risk assessment tools, for example, risk assessment formats, are accessible for various enterprises. They may demonstrate value to organisations fostering their first risk assessment or refreshing more established evaluations.

Risk calculation

We can understand calculating the risk scores using the following equation:

Risk = Threat x Vulnerability x Asset value

Despite the fact that security risks addressed here are as a numerical equation, there’s no need to focus on numbers; it is consistent development.

For instance, assume you need to evaluate the threat with the danger of hackers compromising a specific system. Assuming your organisation is truly defenceless (maybe in light of the fact that you have no firewall and no antivirus arrangement), and the resource is basic, your risk score is high.

Be that as it may, assuming you have great protections and your vulnerability is low, and surprisingly however the resource is as yet basic, your risk score will be medium.

This isn’t completely a numerical recipe; it’s a model for understanding the connections among the parts that feed into deciding danger:

• The threat is another way to say “danger recurrence,” or how frequently a security incident is likely to happen. For instance, the danger of being struck by lightning in a given year is around 1 out of 1,000,000.
• Vulnerability is shorthand for “the probability that a weakness will be taken advantage of and a threat will prevail against an organisation’s guards.” When taking vulnerability into the equation, consider what is the security climate in the organisation? How rapidly would the disaster be relieved? What number of employees are in the company and what is the likelihood of some random one turning into an internal threat?
• Cost is a proportion of the complete monetary effect of a security occurrence. It incorporates hard expenses, similar to harm to equipment, and delicate expenses, like lost business and purchaser certainty. Different expenses can include:
• Sensitive data loss — Theft of proprietary information could make you lose business to your rivals. Robbery of client data could bring about a loss of trust.

• Security systems or application downtime — If a framework neglects to fill its essential role, clients might not be able to put orders, workers might not be able to take care of their responsibilities or convey, etc.
• Legal consequences — If someone takes information from one of your data sets, regardless of whether that information isn’t especially significant, it can cause fines and other lawful expenses since you neglected to agree with the information insurance security necessities of HIPAA, PCI DSS or other consistence

Components of threat analysis

There are a few unique procedures that organisations can use to perform cyber threat examination, yet each, at a center level, shares the accompanying key parts or stages:

Scope

Features of the asset or software and the threat metrics are included within the scope.

Data collection

Security personnel should have unhindered access to information to change it into insights that will help their threat examination. Sources of data collection include interruption occurrences, detection system logs, exploitation reports, firewall logs, the figuring out of malware, open-source security feeds, honeypots, threat attributes, digital forensic analysis and tactical intelligence, vulnerability assessment, threat groups, security incidents etc.

Different sources incorporate different approaches and methods, logs and cautions and framework adaptation and design data. The frameworks or applications distinguished in the degree are identified and all significant raw data is accumulated on the present status of those frameworks.

Other data that can be collected include:

• Service pack levels
• Port enumeration
• Running services
• Unauthenticated wireless transfers
• Operating system information
• Logs from intrusion detection systems
• Network applications running
• Phone frameworks testing
• System’s physical location
• Firewall testing
• Access control authorisations
• Network Surveying

Threat analysis

In this stage, frameworks, resources and undertaking security instruments are tried and considered in contrast to the data collected to identify threats. By applying threat measures for every threat recognised, the organisation will likewise decide the likelihood that the threat will be exploited by any threat actor.

These potential effects can be the result of an attacker impacting the accessibility, classification and integrity of the system or information it cycles or stores.

As a feature of this interaction, the threat analyst should likewise recognise the threat vectors or the means to which a threat can be linked with a device, computer network or system.

These threats can be parted into Human and Nonhuman components. For instance, human threat agents include:

• Hackers
• Theft (electronically and physical)
• Non-specialised staff causing the human error
• Accidental
• Inadequately prepared IT staff
• Backup administrators
• Technicians
• Electricians

Non-human threat agents include:

• Floods
• Plumbing
• Natural disasters
• Viruses
• Lightning strikes
• Fire
• Electrical
• Air (dust)
• Heat control

Some example attack vectors can include:

• Phishing attacks
• Unsecured wireless networks
• Removable media
• Mobile devices
• Malicious web components
• Viruses and malware

Threat data that is recognised should be taken notice of, corresponding to the business climate and what influence they will have on the organisation. Threats go inseparably with weaknesses and can be reviewed along these lines.

For instance, the inner non-specialised staff might have low inspiration to carry out something malicious; in any case, they have a significant degree of capacity because of their privileges to access to specific systems. A hacker, then again, would have a high inspiration and could have a significant degree of capacity to harm or interfere with the business.

It is vital to take note that inspiration doesn’t have an impact on regularly happening events. A low evaluation can be given where the threat has next to zero capacity. A high score can be given for those dangers that are profoundly able and exceptional.

The utilisation of an evaluating framework will help enormously in the measurement of risk. The executives are better ready to comprehend the effects and consequences of the threats and weaknesses when they are quantifiable.

It is likewise essential to take note that the threat examination should happen consistently. This could be essentially on a yearly basis or when there are changes or innovations in the organisation.

Mitigation and acceptance

When all threats have been identified and a strategic threat intelligence plan opts, the organisation should then figure out which weaknesses will be mitigated and which risk is acceptable.

This acknowledgement or acceptance can be because of the expense or trouble of the remediation, its low likelihood of an event or even its capability to disturb business administrations whenever changed.

One of the last steps is to evaluate whether or not the current strategies, methodology and security framework set up are satisfactory. On the off chance that there are no defence mechanisms set up giving satisfactory assurance, it very well may be accepted that there are weaknesses.

A survey of the current and arranged framework should be performed to decide whether the recently known and found dangers are dealt with or some further changes are required.

Whatever the choice, each activity and choice should have the endorsement of the organisation’s chiefs and stakeholders, affirming that they agree with the decisions made.

Conclusion

As reliance on digital technologies continues to increase, cyber attacks have become too sophisticated. Thus, organisations that rely on outdated cyber security strategies leave themselves vulnerable to potential cyber attacks.

To prevent these threats, organisations must refine their cybersecurity program and improve their cyber security postures. An effective cyber security program can help organisations fight against attacks as they occur, reduce recovery time, and contain future threats from reoccurring.

Threats, vulnerabilities, and risks are unique. Associations spend a lot of assets and time on every one of the three, and many don’t comprehend the contrasts between them. A threat largely implies a vindictive demonstration that means to obliterate information, etc. In online protection, threats are for the most part composed of ransomware, malware, advanced persistent threat (APT), hacking attacks, and information leakages.

Vulnerability analysis uncovers defects in a framework that leave it open to expected attacks. The primary issue behind weaknesses has to do with shortcomings that leave systems open to dangers.

Risk addresses the potential threat indicators with frameworks and the utilisation of frameworks inside an organisation. Threats, vulnerabilities, and risks are unique and frequently interconnected with regard to network protection.

Cybersecurity management is a long interaction and it’s a continuous one. Your organisation can never be excessively secure. Digital attacks can emerge from any level of your organisation, so it’s vital to not give them to IT and forget about them.

In the event that you neglect to play it safe, your organisation and all the more critically your client’s information could be in danger. You should have the option to control third party risks and screen your business for potential information breaches and data leaks persistently.

Catching, putting away, and utilising delicate information is fundamental for most organisations, yet holding and getting to it implies you have the obligation to ensure it. Understanding the distinction between threat, vulnerability, and risk is the initial move toward fostering a digital threat. All things considered, cyber threats are a business risk. Assuming that you can’t protect your clients’ information, you might lose their business.